Sunday, February 21, 2021

Luck and Probability

One time when I was a kid, I was playing "Miner 2049er" on my Commodore 64.  There was this one particularly difficult board that I'd never gotten past.  I spent a long time playing that level over and over.  Finally, I made one really lucky jump, and finished the level.  I was so happy I said a short prayer.  "Thank you, God," I said, and the game immediately locked up.  It was frustrating but hilarious.

I don't believe in God, but occasionally I do see coincidences that make me wonder.  When these things happen, it's not that I actually ponder the existence of the literal Christian God, but more like I find myself thinking, "Someone's writing this."  That "someone" could be a known god of any given religion, or the programmer of an artificial universe, or really any sort of cosmic author archetype.

For example:  Back in the mid 90's, I was living in Kentucky, and very, very poor.  One month, I was unable to make my car insurance payment, and they cancelled my insurance.  It's illegal to drive without insurance in KY, but it's also impossible to feed your spouse without going to work, so I just had to hope I didn't get pulled over.

One night I was driving home from work, when I got pulled over.  Shit.  The officer said, "I was just letting you know you have a headlight out.  Can I see your license, registration, and proof of insurance?"  I handed him the license and registration.  I was just starting to say, "I don't have insurance" when the officer interrupted me.  "Is your car overheating?"  Steam was coming from my hood.

He handed my stuff back.  It was a cold night, so he let me sit in the back of the police car while my car cooled off.  We chatted about various things, and he completely forgot about my insurance.  The car eventually cooled down, and I was able to drive home without incident.  

The timing was so perfect, that it felt like God was protecting me.  On the other hand, helping someone break the law doesn't seem like God's style, but maybe he had plans for me that required me not being in trouble with the law.  Or maybe God recognized how unfair these laws can be for poor people.  Or maybe it was just a big honking coincidence.

The recent ice storm is what got me thinking about this.  If this had happened earlier in my life, I would have been screwed.  Maybe I would have missed work, leaving me with a short paycheck, unable to pay all the bills.  Maybe I would have been so incentivized to go to work anyway, that I would have wrecked on the way home.

But it happened at a time when I'm actually able to work from home.  Not only that, but even if my power had gone out, I work at a job where I can take paid time off for emergencies.  Plus it happened on a four day week, so that helped a little too.

If there is a god, apparently they still love me despite my atheism, and that's awesome.  But it feels less awesome when I look at those who aren't so lucky.  People are dying in Texas.  People who probably devoted a lot more of their lives to God than I have.

So why me?  Why am I supernaturally lucky?  The fact is, there are 8 billion people on this planet.  I don't think most people realize how big a number that is.  Heck, most people don't understand how big a million is.  The fact is, there are enough people on Earth that if a combination of events can happen, it will happen to someone.  

For every time a fortunate coincidence benefits someone, similar conditions lead to predictably tragic outcomes for millions of other people.  With numbers that high, the coincidence is no longer unlikely.  I mean, it's unlikely that I will personally win the lottery, even if I buy 100 tickets.  But it is likely that someone will win, given the millions of tickets sold.  Even in my own life, for every story about how I narrowly avoided an accident, I can give you another story about how I met an unlikely misfortune.

A member of my gaming group passed away recently.  I can't say I actually knew her.  I had played with her in five or six online sessions, but I never met her in person, nor have I ever seen her face.  But she seemed like a great person, and finding out about her death was like a punch in the stomach.

Before I go any further, let me say that I feel a bit skeevy using a friend's death to make a point in a random blog.  Especially when I don't know all the details.  But everyone grieves in their own way, and my way is to shake my fist at the world, getting my anger out in online rants.  

COVID-19 was a factor in her death.  I don't know if it was the main cause, or if it just worsened her existing health problems.  But if it weren't for COVID, I believe she would still be alive right now.  And yet, there's a vaccine for COVID, it just hasn't reached everyone yet.  

For every person who got out of a traffic ticket because a random event distracted the officer, a thousand people probably died of COVID when they were just weeks from getting the vaccine.  Dying from COVID was always a tragedy, but it seems especially tragic when we're this close to the finish line.  If not for a better distribution plan, many victims would be alive today.

You didn't think we'd get out of this without slinging some mud at Trump, did you?  But of course I blame Trump.  He's been out of office for over a month now, and people are still suffering for his lack of action over the past year.  If he'd enforced a real quarantine, or had an actual vaccine distribution plan, fewer people would be dying now.  

I'm not blaming Trump for every single COVID death in the US, but I do think at least a quarter of them would have been avoided if we'd had an actual functioning adult for president.  That's at least 125,000 deaths that could have been prevented if more people had voted responsibly.  

But because some of you are so afraid of immigrants and poor people, you just had to vote for someone who clearly didn't have the temperament to manage a crisis.  Thousands of deaths are on your hands, and if there is a god, there is no version of Christianity where you're going to come out on top.  Yes, I am angry.  I am pissed at the loss of my friend, as well as the thousands of other COVID victims who might be alive right now if Republicans actually followed the religion they claim to support.

But I digress.  My point is, for every amazing happy coincidence, there are many more tragic coincidences.  People love to point out the happy ones as evidence that God loves us, but handwave all the tragedies as "God's mysterious plan."  This is the equivalent of defending an abusive husband because he occasionally brings home flowers.

The truth is, either there is no God, or he's a total bastard.

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